Futures and Securities Branch
Predicting the future is a risky business unless you do it scientifically with wild imagination. That is to say, you find the real causes behind the movement of commodity prices. Science can tell the future of the material movement, but what about  the price of euro, or the orange juice for instance?

Have you heard of the disputed debate between basic  and technical analysis? it is a debate on what is the right approach to the prediction of future price movement. But have you heard of an approach that include both of them? And what is more, we have constructed a theory called price dynamics applying statistics and physics to explain the price movement. The best part of the theory is practical ,that it provide the reasonable entry and exit signals, and more important than the signals, how to make use of  the signals. We have been in the futures and foreign exchange markets for more than ten years, we know there is no system that make no mistakes. But there is always a better one that can give better signals. The key is if the theory can reflect the nature of market and tell you what to expect, and the practical question is how to detect the mistakes and keep the loss of mistakes reasonable and short, and how to keep the profit of the correct signals long. Just like living our own life, we may have many merits to be proud of, but if we insist on one mistake, which means we never correct it, it can ruin our whole life.  

We can provide our customers with the services of:

a; Price movement predictions 

On this term, we provide our predictions of a future price movement directions and possible price targets within a limited time period, the time can be a few days, weeks or years. 

b; Market entry / exit signals

On this condition, we provide the entry signals and profit targets and stop loss points or profit taking points. But it is up to the customers to make use of the signals.  

c; Market operations brokerage

In this case, we are not only provide information and analysis services, but also operate on behalf of the customers. We will provide a whole market tactics to enter and leave the market given the above signals.

 

Homework Questions for traders:

Q1;What is a trend in a market price movement? 

Q2;Does the trend is best represented by lines? 

Q3;Do trendlines really reflect the nature of price movement?

Reference; Linear relationship is simple but not the true reflect of the nature of this earthly world, No matter in the material science or economic interaction.  Lines are only a approximator of the truth within a limited time-space interval. There is also no clear definition of how to draw a trendline. Different practices are seen in this trade. Then 

Q4;what is the best mathematical representative of a market price movement?  Using what scales to measure them?

Q5;Dose the price movement like material movement with directions and speeds? 

Q6;Operationally, how do I know that I take a wrong position and when/where I had better stop loss? If I do not terminate my position, what is going to happen?

Q7;What is the philosophical thinking behind a stop loss order? 

You can stop loss anywhere without a reason, maybe you just feel unsure about the future, but what is the minimum and rational cost by stopping loss at a particular space-time point? 

Q8; Is the price movement in the past able to predict its future movement? Does history repeat itself and if so, in what way? 

Q9; What is the right expectation from technical and basic analyses?  How to apply both methods to the prediction work? 

Q10;What about the news? How do the unexpected events like Sep.11 affect the markets?







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